Thursday, May 24, 2007

Joe Koster: Cryptologic Update

Charlie Munger said at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting that "when trying to determine intrinsic value, margin of safety, etc. there is no one easy method. By definition, you will need multiple models." Although the value of any business is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of it over its life, it is certainly prudent and necessary not to get anchored on one value. I will admit, that I did not properly handicap the odds in my initial valuation for the years 2007 and 2008. I knew they would be very uncertain but made them normal anyway because it made the model look nice and neat. However, my thoughts about CRYP being a great investment haven't changed. As I type, a share in this business is trading for $23.25 and although it is now even more clear that the next 12-18 will be a little uncertain, CRYP has signed 2 very important new clients since my last post (Holland Casino and World Poker Tour) and I'm as bullish as ever.

Disclaimer: I do own Crytologic.

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