Bill Miller fights back

It's been a rough couple of years for Bill Miller. His $16.5 billion mutual fund, Legg Mason Value Trust, just turned in its worst two-year performance relative to the S&P 500 since 1990, trailing the index by ten percentage points in 2006 and by 12 last year. That would be a poor stretch by any standard, but it's even worse by Miller's own: Until 2006 his value-oriented fund outperformed the index every calendar year for an astounding decade and a half.

With relatively few stocks in the portfolio - fewer than 50 at present - Value Trust has long been one of the most volatile funds in its category. But investors aren't used to seeing Miller lose, and they pulled more than $3 billion out of the fund in 2007, according to Financial Research Corp. Based on its expense ratio of 1.7%, that adds up to a $50 million annual drop in revenues from fees.

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Bill Miller's simple plan for Citi

Bill Miller, the legendary Legg Mason Value Trust fund manager, owns shares of Citigroup, the embattled financial services giant that is looking for a new chief executive officer. And Miller has a suggestion about the type of person that the bank should hire to replace the ousted Charles Prince.

He said the bank should find someone who has a similar management style to Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd. Hurd replaced Carly Fiorina in 2005 and has led a dramatic turnaround at HP, mainly by cutting costs and focusing the computer company on what it does best.

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Bill Miller Is Bullish

The current credit crunch is "much more serious" for the U.S. financial system than the 1987 stock market crash was, warns Legg Mason's Bill Miller in a conference call with analysts. "The mortgage market is bigger than the whole U.S. economy, and that market is effectively shut down."

But once the immediate crisis has passed, Miller thinks stocks will head higher. And he predicts that the industry sectors that have led the market in recent years, such as energy and basic materials, will become laggards. "The leadership is likely to change," says Miller, whose Legg Mason Value beat Standard & Poor's 500-stock index a record 15 straight years until 2006.

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Bill Miller: Commentaries

Our returns this year, compared to the market’s, are primarily due to our exposure to housing and housing-related securities, and our lack of exposure to energy. A few thoughts on both are in order.

Owning housing stocks in the midst of the worst housing market in at least 15 years, and one where the problems may linger until 2009, may prompt a reaction similar to that one client had when we bought a company in the midst of a scandal: don’t you read the papers? At LMCM we actually try to buy low and sell high, and you don’t buy low when everything is great and the headlines reflect it. Usually, but not always, when you read about some industry or company having the worst time since some period of years, or even decades ago, you will find that buying that industry or company when it was going through those difficulties proved quite profitable if your time horizon wasn’t measured in days or months. The headlines today are all about this being the worst housing market since the early 1990’s. Had you bought housing stocks during that previous period of duress, you would have made many times your money and handily outperformed the market over the subsequent decade.

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Source: GuruFocus.com

Bill Miller: What's luck got to do with it?

Question: Right. Who's Puggy Pearson, and why should anybody care?

Answer: Well, the late Puggy Pearson was a professional gambler, lived in Las Vegas, had a 5th grade education, but nonetheless became legendary in poker, and really in other gambling circles, because of his undeniable skill at a game that involves a high degree of chance.

And he won the World Series of Poker, I think in 1973. He also told me he actually won it one other time, but they awarded it to somebody else, because they didn't want him to win it twice. (Laughter) Back in the early years.

Question: In the old days.

Answer: I didn't know whether to believe him or not, but that's what he said. But in any case, he summed up the skills required for successful poker in a pithy way. And those skills, in my view, are also the skills necessary for successful investment.

Somebody once asked Bill Ruane [the late manager of the legendary Sequoia Fund], and I happened to be in the audience that day, "How do you learn about investing?"

And Bill said, "Well, if you read Ben Graham's Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor you'll be well versed in it. And then if you read Warren Buffett's shareholder letters and understand them too, you'll know everything there is to know about investing. And you will become a successful investor."

And I think Bill was right, but it takes a lot of time to do that. Puggy Pearson made it a little pithier when he said, his line was, "There ain't only three things to gambling. Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management, and knowing yourself."

And if you translate that into investing, knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition means knowing when you have some competitive advantage over somebody else. And you don't bet, you don't gamble, you don't invest, unless you have some competitive advantage. I'll come back to what that means in a second.

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Bill Miller: A Legend Sizes Up the Market

You'll consider stocks that most value investors won't touch. How do you justify owning a Google? This is what I call the value conundrum. Look at what have been the biggest wealth-creating companies: Microsoft, Wal-Mart, GE, Johnson & Johnson. You could have bought Microsoft in 1991 at 35 times earnings and made 40 times your money over the next ten years. If you had bought Wal-Mart when it went public, you would have paid 20 times earnings and you would have made 10,000%. If a stock goes up 30 or 40 times in ten years, it has to have been grossly underpriced to begin with. So Microsoft was not expensive at 35 times earnings. It was one of the best bargains out there.

But you think its growth potential and its future cash flow make it cheap today? Yes. It trades at 24 times next year's earnings estimates. We can't find any other company in the market with a faster revenue growth rate and higher profit margins, and that dominates its business like Google but has a lower P/E multiple. MasterCard now has a higher 2008 P/E than Google!

It's that unique? Google trades at a lower multiple than Starbucks. Now, Starbucks is a great company, but Starbucks is growing at half Google's rate. On next year's estimated earnings, Google's P/E is six points higher than Coca-Cola's, but Coke long term is only an 8% grower.

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Bill Miller: 25 Years of Legg Mason Value Trust

Legg Mason Value Trust is celebrating its 25th annaversary. Read commentaries from legendary fund manager Bill Miller, 89-year old co-manager Ernie Kiehne. Also the commentaries from strategiest Michael Mauboussin.

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Source: Gurufocus.com

Bill Miller Video Feb 9, 2007

25 mins interview with Bill Miller.

Happy learning,
David

Bill Miller: End of Streak

Bill Miller ended his legendary 15 years streak in 2006.

Miller didn’t only outperform the S&P 500 index over the total 15-year period; he did so each and every year. The odds of that happening, according to Michael Mauboussin, Legg Mason’s chief investment strategist, is 1 out of 2.3 million! Statistically, Miller’s performance is greater than baseball legend Joe DiMaggio’s consecutive hitting streak of 56 games, which was a 1 out of 1.3 million event.

To read the complete article by Charles Mizrahi: GuruFocus.

Bill Miller will be coming back strongly this new year!
David

The greatest money manager of our time

What do ant colonies, novels and river systems have to do with making money? Ask Bill Miller, the man who's topped the market 15 years running. Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer reports.

To read the complete article.

Thank you Fu Lu for the wonderful link.

David

Bill Miller: Where to Invest Now and the 5 Year Psychological Cycle April 26, 2006

Where should we invest now, we should invest where the returns have lagged in the past 5 years, according to Bill Miller. He wrote: The US equity market has lagged those of the rest of the world by a wide margin for several years, and within our market the mega cap S&P names have lagged the small and mid caps, which are in the 7th year of relative outperformance, quite long in the tooth by historic standards. Part of the reason for the relative lack of interest in US stocks has been the relentless rise in short rates. Our central bank has been noticeably more hawkish than the rest of world, and money has flowed to where money was the easiest, outside the US. As we end our tightening cycle, and others remain engaged in theirs, our market should become relatively more attractive.

In a world where global liquidity may be diminishing, relatively illiquid assets are likely to begin to lose their allure. Liquidity will become more valuable. I think the most liquid market in the world, the US market, will become more attractive, and within that market, money will flow to the largest, most liquid names, which also happen to be the cheapest part of our market

The excitement and enthusiasm surrounding commodities, and the belief that they will continue to rise, is not surprising. People want to buy today what they should have bought 5 or 6 years ago; call it the 5 year psychological cycle.

Today people want commodities, emerging market, non US assets, and small and midcap stocks. Those were all cheap 5 years ago and had you bought them then you would be sitting on enormous gains. But 5 or 6 years ago, everyone wanted tech and internet and telecom stocks, and venture capital and US mega caps. The time to buy them was in 1994 or 1995, when they were cheap. But in 1994 or 1995, people wanted banks and small and mid caps, which should have been bought in 1990, and well, you get the picture.

In general, you can get a good sense of what to buy now by looking to see what the worst performing assets or groups were over the past five or six years. That is long term for most people, and long enough to convince them that the malaise is permanent and to have migrated their money elsewhere, such as to whatever has done best in the past 5 or 6 years.

Given the choice of buying Commodities with a capital C, or buying capital C-Citigroup at current prices, I’ll take the latter. Check back in 5 years.

To read the complete letter

Thank you GuruFocus for the link.

All the best,
Dah Hui Lau (David)
dahhuilaudavid@gmail.com

To visit my archive: http://dahhuilaudavid.blogspot.com/2005/11/archive-of-dah-hui-laus-blog.html