Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Future returns from equities

"If I'm wrong [about future stock market returns being in the mid-single digits], it could be for a bad reason. Stocks partly sell like bonds, based on expectations of future cash streams, and partly like Rembrandts, based on the fact that they've gone up in the past and are fashionable. If they trade more like Rembrandts in the future, then stocks will rise, but they will have no anchors. In this case, it's hard to predict how far, how high, and how long it will last.” by Charlie Munger (May 8, 2001)

"If stocks compound at 15% going forward, then it will be due to a big 'Rembrandt effect.' This is not good. Look at what happened in Japan, where stocks traded at 50 to 60 times earnings. This led to a 10-year depression. I think that was a special situation, though. My guess is that we won't get extreme 'Rembrandtization' and the returns will be 6%." by Charlie Munger (May 8, 2001)

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