Saturday, August 11, 2007

Tom Brown: 2nd Part Interview with Tom Brown

Below is the second part of that interview.

Emil Lee: Can you give me your bull case for Montpelier Re?

Tom Brown: Montpelier Re is a reinsurance company with an above-average exposure in the areas with the greatest losses in 2004 and 2005. The market is overreacting to these unusual years. Coming out of that, there were a number of changes -- rating-agency changes -- which forced catastrophe-loss modelers to change. A lot of companies are scared and have reduced exposures. Also, primary insurers are looking to increase reinsurance coverage. So it's a very good pricing environment [for reinsurance]. For example, coming out of the heavy hurricane season of 2005, let's [hypothetically] say pricing was up 20% on Jan. 1, [and] by July it was up 30%. The question is: Where is pricing going to be in 2007? It looks like it'll be down a little bit. Also, attachment points are up, so the risk of loss goes down.

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